----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  /Users/Allan/Dropbox/!!Papers/liberal peace/11-12-21_Commentary_on_Mousseau/Replication Files/12-09-18_DR_log.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:  18 Sep 2012, 10:51:29

. 
. clear

. 
. 
. 
. set more off

. 
. global filetree /Users/Allan/Dropbox/!!Papers/Liberal Peace/11-12-21_Commentary_on_Mousseau/Replication Files/

. 
. cd "$filetree"
/Users/Allan/Dropbox/!!Papers/liberal peace/11-12-21_Commentary_on_Mousseau/Replication Files

. 
. do "12-01-25_Moum2012build.do"

. *12-01-25_Moum2012build.do
. 
. ***This document contains the code to construct the variables for the following work:
. *Dafoe, Allan and Bruce Russett. 2012. Democracy and Capitalism: Interwoven Strands of the Liberal Peace. in Eds. Nils Petter Gleditsc
> h and Gerald Schneider. The Capitalist Peace. 
. 
. *This code is based almost entirely on the code and data for the chapter to which it responds: 
. 
. *Mousseau, Michael, Omer F. Orsue, Jameson L. Ungerer, and Demet Y. Mousseau. 2012. Capitalism and Peace: It's Keynes, not Hayek. in E
> ds. Nils Petter Gleditsch and Gerald Schneider. The Capitalist Peace. 
. 
. 
. 
. *****************************************************************************
. **************STEP 1: GENERATING VARIABLES***********************************
. *****************************************************************************
. 
. 
. ********************************************
. ****Generating the Independent Variables****
. ********************************************
. 
. 
. use "Step1 reduced.dta", clear

. 
. su year

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
        year |    559601    1981.415    14.22834       1944       2001

. 
. replace         tpop_1          =. if tpop_1            ==-9
(16 real changes made, 16 to missing)

. replace         tpop_2          =. if tpop_2            ==-9
(123 real changes made, 123 to missing)

. replace         energy_1        =. if energy_1  ==-9
(3039 real changes made, 3039 to missing)

. replace         energy_2        =. if energy_2  ==-9
(2830 real changes made, 2830 to missing)

. replace         cap_1           =. if cap_1             ==-9
(16 real changes made, 16 to missing)

. replace         cap_2           =. if cap_2             ==-9
(123 real changes made, 123 to missing)

. replace         polity21        =. if polity21  ==-99
(70135 real changes made, 70135 to missing)

. replace         polity22        =. if polity22  ==-99
(47970 real changes made, 47970 to missing)

. replace         capopenl        =. if capopenl  ==-9
(185769 real changes made, 185769 to missing)

. replace         pub1    =. if pub1              ==-9
(0 real changes made)

. replace         pub2    =. if pub2              ==-9
(0 real changes made)

. replace     distance=. if distance==-9
(0 real changes made)

. replace     region1=. if region1==-9
(0 real changes made)

. replace     region2=. if region2==-9
(0 real changes made)

. 
. 
. g cpl = cap_1 if cap_1 < cap_2 & cap_1~=. & cap_2~=.
(264879 missing values generated)

. replace cpl = cap_2 if cap_2 <= cap_1 & cap_1~=. & cap_2~=.
(264740 real changes made)

. g cph = cap_1 if cap_1 > cap_2 & cap_1~=. & cap_2~=.
(295282 missing values generated)

. replace cph = cap_2 if cap_2 >= cap_1 & cap_1~=. & cap_2~=.
(295143 real changes made)

. g lncprt=ln(cph/cpl) if cph~=. & cpl~=.
(1086 missing values generated)

. drop cap_1 cap_2 

. label variable lncprt "Relative capability"

. 
. gen majpow=0

. replace majpow=1 if majpow1==1 | majpow2==1
(41556 real changes made)

. replace majpow=. if majpow1==. | majpow2==.
(0 real changes made)

. label variable majpow "Major power"

. 
. g cntgd=0 

. replace cntgd = 1 if contig == 1
(12026 real changes made)

. label variable cntgd "Contiguity"

. 
. g dist=ln(distance) if distance~=.
(5814 missing values generated)

. label variable dist "LogDistance"

. 
. g CIEl= CIE1 if CIE1~=. & CIE2~=.
(231045 missing values generated)

. replace CIEl= CIE2 if CIE1> CIE2 & CIE1~=. & CIE2~=.
(197636 real changes made)

. label variable CIEl "CIEL"

. 
. g CIEh= max(CIE1,CIE2) if CIE1~=. & CIE2~=.
(231045 missing values generated)

. label variable CIEh "CIEH"

. 
. 
. g dml=polity21 if polity21~=. & polity22~=.
(110781 missing values generated)

. replace dml= polity22 if polity21> polity22 & polity21~=. & polity22~=.
(241406 real changes made)

. label variable dml "DemocracyL"

. g dmh=polity21 if polity21~=. & polity22~=.
(110781 missing values generated)

. replace dmh= polity22 if polity21< polity22 & polity21~=. & polity22~=.
(158461 real changes made)

. g dmdist = dmh-dml if dmh~=. & dml~=.
(110781 missing values generated)

. drop polity21 polity22 

. label variable dmdist "Regime Difference"

. 
. g bdm=0

. replace bdm=1 if dml >=7
(157097 real changes made)

. replace bdm=. if dml==.
(110781 real changes made, 110781 to missing)

. label variable bdm "DemocracyBinary6"

. 
. g dm10=0

. replace dm10=1 if dml>=10
(124899 real changes made)

. replace dm10=. if dml==.
(110781 real changes made, 110781 to missing)

. label variable dm10 "DemocracyBinary10"

. 
. gen dml2=dml+10
(110781 missing values generated)

. gen dmlsq=dml2^2
(110781 missing values generated)

. label variable dmlsq "DemocracyL^2"

. 
. g edv1= energy_1/ tpop_1
(3039 missing values generated)

. g edv2= energy_2/ tpop_2
(2830 missing values generated)

. g edvl= ln(1+edv1) if edv1 ~=. & edv2 ~=.
(5861 missing values generated)

. replace edvl= ln(1+edv2) if edv2<edv1 & edv1 ~=. & edv2 ~=.
(312704 real changes made)

. label variable edvl "WealthL"

. 
. g dpl=dp1*100 if dp1~=. & dp2~=.
(43770 missing values generated)

. replace dpl= dp2*100 if dp1> dp2 & dp1~=. & dp2~=.
(140339 real changes made)

. drop dp1 dp2

. label variable dpl "TradeL"

. 
. g pubh=pub1 if pub1~=. & pub2~=.
(400179 missing values generated)

. replace pubh= pub2 if pub2> pub1 & pub1~=. & pub2~=.
(95391 real changes made)

. label variable pubh "PublicH"

. 
. joinby dyadid year using "ICB data.dta", unmatched(both)

. tab _merge

                       _merge |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------------------------+-----------------------------------
          only in master data |    559,028       99.86       99.86
           only in using data |        230        0.04       99.90
both in master and using data |        573        0.10      100.00
------------------------------+-----------------------------------
                        Total |    559,831      100.00

. drop if _merge==2
(230 observations deleted)

. *We have deleted 230 observations because our dataset starts from 1943 (this is not the analysis start year).
. *As a result, now we have 803 ICB cases-230=573 cases of ICBs
. drop _merge

. 
. sort dyadid year

. xtset dyadid year
       panel variable:  dyadid (unbalanced)
        time variable:  year, 1944 to 2001, but with gaps
                delta:  1 unit

. replace crisis=0 if crisis==.
(559028 real changes made)

. gen crisis1= F1.crisis
(19455 missing values generated)

. *This command shifts crisis forward one year. 
. *(19455 missing values generated)
. *This means we are left with 539 ICB cases. 
. label variable crisis1 "Crisis t+1"

. drop if year<1947
(5814 observations deleted)

. *We now have 523 ICB cases.
. btscs crisis1 year dyadid, g(peaceyrs) nspline(3)

. label var _spline1 "Spline 1"

. label var _spline2 "Spline 2"

. label var _spline3 "Spline 3"

. drop if year<1960
(41626 observations deleted)

. *We now have 394 cases of ICBs for our crisis t+1 variable. 
. *Therefore, for the period of 1960-2000, one can only have 394 cases of ICB onsets.
. 
. label variable numstate "Number of states"

. 
. sort dyadid

. gen capopenl2=capopenl
(331392 missing values generated)

. replace capopenl2=0 if (capopenl==. & year>=1966 & year<1993)
(132273 real changes made)

. labe variable capopenl  "CAPOPENL (Gartzke 2007)"

. labe variable capopenl2 "CAPOPENL (Gartzke & Hewitt 2010)"

. by dyadid: ipolate capopenl year, gen(capopenl_ipol)
(328943 missing values generated)

. gen capopenl_ipol2=capopenl_ipol
(328943 missing values generated)

. replace capopenl_ipol2=0 if (capopenl_ipol==. & year>=1966 & year<=1992)
(129824 real changes made)

. labe variable capopenl_ipol2 "Capital OpennessL"

. 
. gen CIEdiff=CIEh-CIEl
(183605 missing values generated)

. 
. gen CIElDml=CIEl*dml
(190350 missing values generated)

. gen CIElbdm=CIEl*bdm
(190350 missing values generated)

. gen CIEldm10=CIEl*dm10
(190350 missing values generated)

. gen CIEldmlsq=CIEl*dmlsq
(190350 missing values generated)

. 
. order dyadid year ccode1 ccode2 year crisis1 CIEl CIEh dml bdm dm10 dmlsq dmdist edvl dpl capopenl capopenl2 capopenl_ipol2 pubh lncpr
> t  majpow cntgd dist  numstate  peaceyrs _spline1 _spline2 _spline3

. 
. *keep dyadid ccode1 ccode2 year crisis1 CIEl dml bdm dm10 dmlsq dmdist edvl dpl capopenl capopenl2 capopenl_ipol2 pubh lncprt  majpow 
> cntgd dist  numstate  peaceyrs _spline1 _spline2 _spline3
. 
end of do-file

. 
. cd "$filetree"
/Users/Allan/Dropbox/!!Papers/liberal peace/11-12-21_Commentary_on_Mousseau/Replication Files

. save "MOUM2012-2.dta", replace
file MOUM2012-2.dta saved

. 
. clear

. cd "$filetree"
/Users/Allan/Dropbox/!!Papers/liberal peace/11-12-21_Commentary_on_Mousseau/Replication Files

. use "MOUM2012-2.dta"

. 
. label variable peaceyrs "Time Since Last Crisis"

. 
. 
. 
. *****************************************************************************
. **************Including DemocracyHigh Instead of Regime Difference***********
. *****************************************************************************
. 
. global controlvars  lncprt  majpow cntgd dist  numstate  peaceyrs _spline1 _spline2 _spline3

. 
. 
. ***MOUM 2012 original TABLE 1: CIE, DEMOCRACY AND ICB ONSET, 1960-2001
. *replicated precisely
. quietly {

. esttab, b(2) se(2) replace label star(`=char(160)' 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001)  order(CIEl dml bdm dmlsq dmdist $controlvars) scala
> rs("ll Log lik.") pr2 varwidth(25) modelwidth(8)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                               (1)         (2)         (3)         (4)         (5)         (6)   
                          Crisis~1    Crisis~1    Crisis~1    Crisis~1    Crisis~1    Crisis~1   
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CIEL                                     -0.39***    -0.46***    -0.44***    -0.37**     -0.52***
                                        (0.11)      (0.11)      (0.09)      (0.12)      (0.08)   

DemocracyL                   -0.10***    -0.05                                                   
                            (0.03)      (0.04)                                                   

DemocracyBinary6                                     -0.42                                       
                                                    (0.69)                                       

DemocracyL^2                                                                 -0.00               
                                                                            (0.00)               

Regime Difference             0.05***     0.05***     0.06***     0.06***     0.05***            
                            (0.01)      (0.01)      (0.01)      (0.01)      (0.01)               

Relative capability          -0.27**     -0.30***    -0.30***    -0.30***    -0.30***    -0.32***
                            (0.09)      (0.09)      (0.09)      (0.09)      (0.09)      (0.09)   

Major power                   2.36***     2.52***     2.51***     2.50***     2.53***     2.63***
                            (0.30)      (0.29)      (0.28)      (0.28)      (0.29)      (0.31)   

Contiguity                    2.12***     2.07***     2.11***     2.11***     2.06***     1.89***
                            (0.28)      (0.29)      (0.28)      (0.27)      (0.29)      (0.26)   

LogDistance                  -0.61***    -0.66***    -0.66***    -0.66***    -0.66***    -0.68***
                            (0.09)      (0.09)      (0.09)      (0.09)      (0.09)      (0.09)   

Number of states             -0.00       -0.01�      -0.01*      -0.01*      -0.01*      -0.01** 
                            (0.00)      (0.00)      (0.00)      (0.00)      (0.00)      (0.00)   

Time Since Last Crisis       -0.32***    -0.31***    -0.31***    -0.31***    -0.31***    -0.32***
                            (0.05)      (0.05)      (0.05)      (0.05)      (0.05)      (0.05)   

Spline 1                     -0.00***    -0.00***    -0.00***    -0.00***    -0.00***    -0.00***
                            (0.00)      (0.00)      (0.00)      (0.00)      (0.00)      (0.00)   

Spline 2                      0.00**      0.00**      0.00**      0.00**      0.00**      0.00** 
                            (0.00)      (0.00)      (0.00)      (0.00)      (0.00)      (0.00)   

Spline 3                     -0.00*      -0.00�      -0.00�      -0.00�      -0.00*      -0.00�  
                            (0.00)      (0.00)      (0.00)      (0.00)      (0.00)      (0.00)   

Constant                     -0.92        0.04        0.50        0.48        0.51        1.43   
                            (0.82)      (0.85)      (0.90)      (0.89)      (0.89)      (0.90)   
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                321811      321811      321811      310502      321811      328424   
Pseudo R-squared             0.248       0.254       0.253       0.251       0.254       0.243   
Log lik.                  -1768.55    -1753.48    -1757.01    -1754.24    -1752.92    -1800.06   
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
� p<0.10, * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

. 
. *Note that the stars are modified to correspond with Goldstein's (2010) recommendation.
. 
. ***Dafoe & Russett 2012 Table A1 (exact same table as above, but now with dmh instead of dmdist)
. 
. quietly {

. esttab using TableA1.rtf, b(2) se(2) replace label star(`=char(160)' 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001)  order(CIEl dml bdm dmlsq dmh $con
> trolvars) scalars("ll Log lik.") pr2 varwidth(25) modelwidth(8)
(output written to TableA1.rtf)

. 
. 
. 
. *****************************************************************************
. **************Interacting CIEl and DemocracyLow******************************
. *****************************************************************************
. 
. ***Clarify Interaction
. **The following code based on:
. *Michael Tomz, Jason Wittenberg, and Gary King. 2003. CLARIFY: Software for Inter- preting and Presenting Statistical Results. Version
>  2.1. Stanford University, University of Wisconsin, and Harvard University. January 5. Available at http://gking.harvard.edu/
. 
. 
. ****Figure 1
. clear

. 
. cd "$filetree"
/Users/Allan/Dropbox/!!Papers/liberal peace/11-12-21_Commentary_on_Mousseau/Replication Files

. 
. use "MOUM2012-2.dta"

. 
. global controlvars  lncprt  majpow cntgd dist  numstate  peaceyrs _spline1 _spline2 _spline3

. 
. 
. ***Using Model 2 from MOUM Table 1
. estsimp logit           crisis1                 CIEl  dml  CIElDml dmdist                         $controlvars, cl(dyadid) nolog sims(
> 10000)

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =     321811
                                                  Wald chi2(13)   =    1481.57
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -1746.1962                 Pseudo R2       =     0.2574

                             (Std. Err. adjusted for 12469 clusters in dyadid)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
     crisis1 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        CIEl |  -.5986541   .1181671    -5.07   0.000    -.8302574   -.3670509
         dml |   .0085421   .0403181     0.21   0.832    -.0704798     .087564
     CIElDml |  -.0494445   .0142264    -3.48   0.001    -.0773276   -.0215613
      dmdist |   .0493793   .0129164     3.82   0.000     .0240635     .074695
      lncprt |  -.3082944    .088412    -3.49   0.000    -.4815786   -.1350101
      majpow |    2.58094   .2745646     9.40   0.000     2.042803    3.119077
       cntgd |   2.097992    .282814     7.42   0.000     1.543687    2.652297
        dist |  -.6662585   .0906794    -7.35   0.000    -.8439868   -.4885301
    numstate |  -.0054083   .0027633    -1.96   0.050    -.0108242    7.57e-06
    peaceyrs |  -.3121377   .0496292    -6.29   0.000    -.4094091   -.2148663
    _spline1 |  -.0020484   .0005739    -3.57   0.000    -.0031732   -.0009236
    _spline2 |   .0012719   .0004425     2.87   0.004     .0004047    .0021391
    _spline3 |  -.0003287   .0001573    -2.09   0.037    -.0006371   -.0000203
       _cons |   .4839694    .852703     0.57   0.570    -1.187298    2.155236
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Simulating main parameters.  Please wait....
% of simulations completed: 7% 14% 21% 28% 35% 42% 50% 57% 64% 71% 78% 85% 92% 100% 

Number of simulations  : 10000
Names of new variables : b1 b2 b3 b4 b5 b6 b7 b8 b9 b10 b11 b12 b13 b14

. 
. summarize dml, d

                         DemocracyL
-------------------------------------------------------------
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%          -10            -10
 5%          -10            -10
10%           -9            -10       Obs              405126
25%           -8            -10       Sum of Wgt.      405126

50%           -7                      Mean          -4.226961
                        Largest       Std. Dev.      5.884567
75%           -2             10
90%            7             10       Variance       34.62813
95%            8             10       Skewness       1.217601
99%           10             10       Kurtosis       3.083872

.    local mx1=r(p50)

.    local mx2=r(p90)

.    *These will be used to change democracy from median to 90th percentile (50 to 90th percentile). This assumes holding the difference
>  in democracy constant. 
.    
.    
. sum CIEl,d

                            CIEL
-------------------------------------------------------------
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%            0              0
 5%            0              0
10%            0              0       Obs              328556
25%     .2730841              0       Sum of Wgt.      328556

50%     .8533113                      Mean           1.090047
                        Largest       Std. Dev.      1.137458
75%     1.530647       7.891397
90%     2.377811       7.954988       Variance        1.29381
95%     3.213251        7.97104       Skewness       2.000386
99%     5.801502       8.012553       Kurtosis       8.519958

. local min=r(min) 

. *r(p10)
. local max=r(max) 

. *r(p90)
.    
.  gen plo=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen phi=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen plo1=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen phi1=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen plo2=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen phi2=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen pmid=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen pmid1=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen pmid2=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen pidifflo=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen pidiffhi=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen pidiffmed=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen frequency=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    
. local numbersteps=61

.    generate xaxis = `min'+ (_n-1)*(`max'-`min')/(`numbersteps'-1) in 1/`numbersteps'
(512100 missing values generated)

.    
.    local span=(`max'-`min')/(`numbersteps'-1)

. 
. *   generate CIElaxis = round((_n-1)/10,0.1) in 1/61
. setx lncprt median  majpow 0 cntgd 1 dist min  numstate median  peaceyrs 0 _spline1 0 _spline2 0 _spline3 0

. 
. gen zero=0 if xaxis~=.
(512100 missing values generated)

. 
. 
. local a = 1

. while `a' <= `numbersteps' {
  2.    setx CIEl xaxis[`a'] dml `mx1' CIElDml xaxis[`a']*`mx1'
  3.       simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi1)
  4. 
.    setx CIEl xaxis[`a'] dml `mx2' CIElDml xaxis[`a']*`mx2'
  5.    simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi2) 
  6.         
.         gen pidiff=pi2-pi1
  7.         _pctile pidiff, p(2.5, 50, 97.5)
  8.         replace pidifflo= r(r1) if `a'==_n
  9.         replace pidiffmed=r(r2) if `a'==_n
 10.         replace pidiffhi=r(r3) if `a'==_n
 11.         
.         
.     if `a'==1 { 
 12.     count if CIEl<=xaxis[`a']+`span'/2
 13.     replace frequency=r(N) if _n==`a'
 14.     }
 15.     if `a'>1 & `a'<`numbersteps' {
 16.     count if CIEl>xaxis[`a']-`span'/2 & CIEl<=xaxis[`a']+`span'/2 & CIEl~=.
 17.     replace frequency=r(N) if _n==`a'
 18.     }
 19.     if `a'==`numbersteps' {
 20.     count if CIEl>xaxis[`a']-`span'/2 & CIEl~=.
 21.     replace frequency=r(N) if _n==`a'    
 22.     }
 23. 
.         
. drop pi1 pi2 pidiff
 24.    local a = `a' + 1
 25. }

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .5138274     .1050688     .3103231    .7145274

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .5419174     .1449265     .2548073     .803327

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
67294
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .5057603     .1045712      .304472    .7066012

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .5130776     .1429993     .2369156     .778862

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
10440
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4976829     .1041302     .2983933    .6977061

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4839612     .1403467      .220592    .7514186

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
10516
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4896013     .1037481      .292148    .6889314

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4547713     .1370022     .2039602    .7238934

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
16114
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4815222     .1034265     .2861128    .6820175

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4257173     .1330179     .1881053    .6939838

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
20563
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4734518     .1031665     .2792859      .67496

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3970091     .1284623     .1731493    .6609316

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
20741
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4653966     .1029685     .2721576    .6677555

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3688503     .1234182     .1588023    .6277122

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
20432
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4573628     .1028323     .2657156    .6606439

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3414326     .1179786     .1450909    .5935691

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
21361
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4493567     .1027573     .2584496    .6538204

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3149295     .1122425     .1311069    .5591688

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
18490
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4413845     .1027421     .2508201    .6467321

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2894923     .1063102     .1184565    .5241445

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
15264
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4334521     .1027849     .2443239    .6396485

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2652462     .1002791     .1069613    .4874788

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
13683
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4255654     .1028832     .2367887    .6334624

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2422883     .0942396     .0965992    .4545734

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
11957
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4177301     .1030343      .229089    .6274077

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2206875     .0882719     .0859567    .4214014

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
11919
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4099516      .103235     .2214975    .6213572

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2004843     .0824441     .0766511    .3905027

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
11707
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4022353     .1034817     .2151468    .6155351

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1816934     .0768113      .068112    .3617043

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 8527
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3945861     .1037706     .2081196    .6093679

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1643063     .0714153     .0604459    .3324852

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 6111
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3870089     .1040976      .200817    .6028843

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1482941     .0662854     .0534223    .3051772

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 5618
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3795083     .1044585     .1940237    .5974009

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1336119     .0614399     .0471323    .2809025

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 4026
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3720884     .1048491     .1861026    .5917893

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1202015     .0568878     .0413451    .2582249

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 3318
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3647534     .1052652     .1789416    .5866702

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1079956     .0526303     .0363747    .2375025

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 3099
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .357507     .1057023     .1721509    .5818046

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0969205     .0486628     .0317988    .2170496

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 3503
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3503526     .1061563     .1657156    .5758854

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0868992      .044976      .027818    .1988184

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 2243
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3432934     .1066231     .1587922    .5699007

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0778533     .0415582     .0241452    .1821933

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 1979
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3363323     .1070988     .1526984      .56558

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0697048     .0383951     .0208661    .1676128

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 2248
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .329472     .1075796     .1459591    .5605124

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0623782     .0354718     .0181061    .1532451

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 1742
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3227147      .108062     .1401826     .555465

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0558007     .0327729     .0156064    .1407442

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 1692
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3160626     .1085426     .1346689    .5512618

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0499035     .0302828     .0134465    .1284695

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 1153
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3095174     .1090183     .1289179    .5470228

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0446222     .0279868      .011588    .1174526

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 1103
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3030807     .1094864     .1233325    .5432509

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0398966     .0258703     .0099302     .107141

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  903
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2967538     .1099442     .1178745    .5391558

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0356716     .0239199     .0085706    .0976692

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  572
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2905376     .1103894     .1129541    .5350825

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0318963     .0221226     .0073038    .0900094

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  564
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2844331     .1108198      .107777    .5309851

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0285243     .0204666     .0062126    .0826062

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  498
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2784408     .1112338     .1027413    .5267645

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0255137     .0189409     .0052735    .0759081

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  550
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2725611     .1116295     .0974111    .5233709

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0228263      .017535     .0044996    .0694185

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  407
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2667942     .1120058     .0929717    .5195818

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0204278     .0162395     .0038559     .063677

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  552
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |     .26114     .1123613     .0882285    .5163748

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0182871     .0150457     .0033027    .0583791

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  573
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2555984     .1126951     .0840272    .5128052

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0163767     .0139454     .0028075    .0537519

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  553
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .250169     .1130066     .0798642    .5094616

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0146715     .0129312     .0023799    .0491703

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  424
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2448513      .113295     .0756167    .5062533

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0131493     .0119962     .0020186    .0451698

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  490
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2396446     .1135599     .0717669    .5047264

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0117903     .0111341     .0017145    .0413773

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  438
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2345481     .1138012     .0678238    .5016228

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0105765     .0103392     .0014518    .0379469

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  234
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2295608     .1140185     .0643032    .4987267

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0094923      .009606     .0012335    .0349833

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  538
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2246819     .1142121     .0612982    .4947777

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0085235     .0089296     .0010413    .0320235

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  735
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |     .21991     .1143818     .0583695    .4919089

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0076574     .0083054     .0008846    .0293365

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  438
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2152441      .114528     .0553444    .4895513

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .006883     .0077294     .0007497    .0270033

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  452
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2106826     .1146509     .0525741    .4873945

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0061902     .0071977     .0006331    .0248896

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  475
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2062244      .114751     .0497722    .4847454

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0055703     .0067067     .0005362    .0227761

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  478
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2018678     .1148286     .0471347    .4821199

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0050152     .0062532     .0004551    .0210271

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  259
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1976114     .1148844     .0444849     .479851

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .004518     .0058342      .000384    .0193859

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  441
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1934536     .1149187     .0420414    .4771512

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0040724      .005447     .0003252    .0179432

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  399
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1893928     .1149324     .0397847    .4749717

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0036729      .005089     .0002733    .0165062

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  202
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1854273      .114926     .0374565    .4722559

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0033146     .0047579     .0002301    .0152154

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  147
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1815555     .1149001     .0355903    .4709026

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .002993     .0044516     .0001942    .0140087

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  173
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1777756     .1148555     .0337672    .4696371

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0027042     .0041681     .0001636    .0129758

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  116
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1740858     .1147929     .0319199    .4675069

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0024448     .0039056     .0001381    .0119975

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
   58
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1704845     .1147131     .0299962    .4640772

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0022116     .0036625     .0001164    .0110788

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
   18
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1669699     .1146167      .028498    .4614837

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0020019     .0034372     .0000975    .0102004

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
   11
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1635402     .1145045     .0268375    .4589399

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0018132     .0032283      .000082    .0094373

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
    4
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1601937     .1143773     .0253787    .4579503

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0016433     .0030345     .0000688    .0086495

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
    5
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1569286     .1142358     .0239899    .4552344

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0014903     .0028546      .000058    .0080029

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
    3
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .153743     .1140808     .0225751    .4532213

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0013523     .0026877     .0000488    .0073726

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
    3
(1 real change made)

. 
. 
. order xaxis pidiff*

. 
. sort xaxis

. 
. sum pidiffhi, d

                          pidiffhi
-------------------------------------------------------------
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%    -.1143395      -.1143395
 5%    -.1132175      -.1141346
10%    -.1099693      -.1135597       Obs                  61
25%    -.0932682      -.1132175       Sum of Wgt.          61

50%    -.0550615                      Mean          -.0302519
                        Largest       Std. Dev.      .0945832
75%    -.0263468       .1996054
90%     .1157534       .2277007       Variance        .008946
95%     .1996054       .2525887       Skewness       1.830066
99%     .2774233       .2774233       Kurtosis       5.623437

. local toprange=0.0012

. local xrange=6

. 
. sort xaxis

. 
. 
. twoway  (rarea pidifflo pidiffhi xaxis if xaxis < `xrange',  lcolor(white)) ||  (line pidiffmed xaxis if xaxis < `xrange', lpattern(so
> lid) lwidth(thick) ) || (line pidifflo xaxis if xaxis < `xrange', lpattern(solid) lwidth(thin)) || (line pidiffhi xaxis if xaxis < `xr
> ange', lpattern(solid) lwidth(thin)) || (kdensity CIEl,     xaxis(2) yaxis(2)       xscale(axis(2) off) yscale(axis(2) range(0 `max_le
> n'/5)) ),  xtitle(ln(LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUMS/CAPITA)) ytitle("Change in P(CRISIS)", axis(1)) ytitle("", axis(2))   yscale(range(-0.002
>  0.001)) title(Predicted Effect of DEMOCRACY (LOW) (Both-Counterfactual))  legend(order(1 "95% CI" 2 "Estimated" "Effect" 5 "Density")
> )  yline(0,lp(solid) lwidth(medthick)) scheme(lean2) 

. 
. graph export interaction_dmlbw.pdf, replace
(file /Users/Allan/Dropbox/!!Papers/liberal peace/11-12-21_Commentary_on_Mousseau/Replication Files/interaction_dmlbw.pdf written in PDF
>  format)

. graph export interaction_dmlbw.png, replace
(file interaction_dmlbw.png written in PNG format)

. 
. 
. twoway  (rarea pidifflo pidiffhi xaxis if xaxis < `xrange',  lcolor(white)) ||  (line pidiffmed xaxis if xaxis < `xrange', lpattern(so
> lid) lwidth(thick) ) || (kdensity CIEl,   xaxis(2) yaxis(2)       xscale(axis(2) off ) yscale(axis(2) range(0 `max_len'/5))),  xtitle(
> ln(LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUMS/CAPITA))  ytitle("Change in P(CRISIS)", axis(1)) ytitle("", axis(2))   yscale(range(-0.002 0.001)) title(Pr
> edicted Effect of DEMOCRACY (LOW) (Both-Counterfactual))  legend(order(1 "95% CI" 2 "Estimated" "Effect" 3 "Density"))  yline(0,lp(sol
> id) lwidth(medthick)) 

. 
. graph export interaction_dmlcol.pdf, replace
(file /Users/Allan/Dropbox/!!Papers/liberal peace/11-12-21_Commentary_on_Mousseau/Replication Files/interaction_dmlcol.pdf written in PD
> F format)

. graph export interaction_dmlcol.png, replace
(file interaction_dmlcol.png written in PNG format)

. 
. 
. *Significance at about CIEl=1.3
. count if CIEl<1.3
224718

. local A1= r(N)

. count if CIEl~=.
328556

. local A2= r(N)

. di `A1'/`A2'
.68395646

. *68% insignificant; 32% significant. 
. 
. *******
. 
. 
. ***Figure 2
. 
. clear

. cd "$filetree"
/Users/Allan/Dropbox/!!Papers/liberal peace/11-12-21_Commentary_on_Mousseau/Replication Files

. use "MOUM2012-2.dta"

. 
. global controlvars  lncprt  majpow cntgd dist  numstate  peaceyrs _spline1 _spline2 _spline3

. 
. 
. estsimp logit           crisis1                 CIEl  dml  CIElDml dmh                    $controlvars, cl(dyadid) nolog sims(10000)

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =     321811
                                                  Wald chi2(13)   =    1481.57
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -1746.1962                 Pseudo R2       =     0.2574

                             (Std. Err. adjusted for 12469 clusters in dyadid)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
     crisis1 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        CIEl |  -.5986541   .1181671    -5.07   0.000    -.8302574   -.3670509
         dml |  -.0408372    .037693    -1.08   0.279    -.1147141    .0330398
     CIElDml |  -.0494445   .0142264    -3.48   0.001    -.0773276   -.0215613
         dmh |   .0493793   .0129164     3.82   0.000     .0240635     .074695
      lncprt |  -.3082944    .088412    -3.49   0.000    -.4815786   -.1350101
      majpow |    2.58094   .2745646     9.40   0.000     2.042803    3.119077
       cntgd |   2.097992    .282814     7.42   0.000     1.543687    2.652297
        dist |  -.6662585   .0906794    -7.35   0.000    -.8439868   -.4885301
    numstate |  -.0054083   .0027633    -1.96   0.050    -.0108242    7.57e-06
    peaceyrs |  -.3121377   .0496292    -6.29   0.000    -.4094091   -.2148663
    _spline1 |  -.0020484   .0005739    -3.57   0.000    -.0031732   -.0009236
    _spline2 |   .0012719   .0004425     2.87   0.004     .0004047    .0021391
    _spline3 |  -.0003287   .0001573    -2.09   0.037    -.0006371   -.0000203
       _cons |   .4839694    .852703     0.57   0.570    -1.187298    2.155236
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Simulating main parameters.  Please wait....
% of simulations completed: 7% 14% 21% 28% 35% 42% 50% 57% 64% 71% 78% 85% 92% 100% 

Number of simulations  : 10000
Names of new variables : b1 b2 b3 b4 b5 b6 b7 b8 b9 b10 b11 b12 b13 b14

. 
. summarize dml, d

                         DemocracyL
-------------------------------------------------------------
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%          -10            -10
 5%          -10            -10
10%           -9            -10       Obs              405126
25%           -8            -10       Sum of Wgt.      405126

50%           -7                      Mean          -4.226961
                        Largest       Std. Dev.      5.884567
75%           -2             10
90%            7             10       Variance       34.62813
95%            8             10       Skewness       1.217601
99%           10             10       Kurtosis       3.083872

.    local mx1=r(p50)

.    local mx2=r(p90) 

.    
. sum CIEl,d

                            CIEL
-------------------------------------------------------------
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%            0              0
 5%            0              0
10%            0              0       Obs              328556
25%     .2730841              0       Sum of Wgt.      328556

50%     .8533113                      Mean           1.090047
                        Largest       Std. Dev.      1.137458
75%     1.530647       7.891397
90%     2.377811       7.954988       Variance        1.29381
95%     3.213251        7.97104       Skewness       2.000386
99%     5.801502       8.012553       Kurtosis       8.519958

. local min=r(min) 

. *r(p10)
. local max=r(max) 

. *r(p90)
.    
.  gen plo=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen phi=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen plo1=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen phi1=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen plo2=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen phi2=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen pmid=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen pmid1=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen pmid2=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen pidifflo=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen pidiffhi=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen pidiffmed=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen frequency=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    
. local numbersteps=61

.    generate xaxis = `min'+ (_n-1)*(`max'-`min')/(`numbersteps'-1) in 1/`numbersteps'
(512100 missing values generated)

.    
.    local span=(`max'-`min')/(`numbersteps'-1)

. 
. *   generate CIElaxis = round((_n-1)/10,0.1) in 1/61
. 
. setx lncprt median  majpow 0 cntgd 1 dist min  numstate median  peaceyrs 0 _spline1 0 _spline2 0 _spline3 0

. 
. gen zero=0 if xaxis~=.
(512100 missing values generated)

. 
. 
. local a = 1

. while `a' <= `numbersteps' {
  2.    setx CIEl xaxis[`a'] dml `mx1' CIElDml xaxis[`a']*`mx1'
  3.       simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi1)
  4. 
.    setx CIEl xaxis[`a'] dml `mx2' CIElDml xaxis[`a']*`mx2'
  5.    simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi2) 
  6.         
.         gen pidiff=pi2-pi1
  7.         _pctile pidiff, p(2.5, 50, 97.5)
  8.         replace pidifflo= r(r1) if `a'==_n
  9.         replace pidiffmed=r(r2) if `a'==_n
 10.         replace pidiffhi=r(r3) if `a'==_n
 11.         
.         
.     if `a'==1 { 
 12.     count if CIEl<=xaxis[`a']+`span'/2
 13.     replace frequency=r(N) if _n==`a'
 14.     }
 15.     if `a'>1 & `a'<`numbersteps' {
 16.     count if CIEl>xaxis[`a']-`span'/2 & CIEl<=xaxis[`a']+`span'/2 & CIEl~=.
 17.     replace frequency=r(N) if _n==`a'
 18.     }
 19.     if `a'==`numbersteps' {
 20.     count if CIEl>xaxis[`a']-`span'/2 & CIEl~=.
 21.     replace frequency=r(N) if _n==`a'    
 22.     }
 23. 
.         
. drop pi1 pi2 pidiff
 24.    local a = `a' + 1
 25. }

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .5965556     .0918201     .4115483    .7671761

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4603105     .1467309     .1918569     .749366

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
67294
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .5887761     .0915229     .4048317    .7606536

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .431689     .1425861     .1763547    .7198302

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
10440
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .5809355      .091292     .3978104    .7527156

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4033234     .1378011     .1615674    .6900474

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
10516
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .5730392     .0911322     .3914175    .7457512

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |     .37541      .132453      .148134    .6572229

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
16114
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .565093     .0910472     .3849315     .737843

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3481368     .1266321     .1356129    .6219455

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
20563
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .5571028     .0910404     .3768567    .7292873

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3216779     .1204383     .1241794    .5872373

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
20741
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .5490746     .0911145       .36964    .7218361

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2961889     .1139771     .1134578    .5503898

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
20432
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .5410148     .0912712     .3612741    .7142735

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2718031     .1073547     .1036188    .5134929

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
21361
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .5329296     .0915114     .3537319    .7064897

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2486284      .100674     .0935151    .4765575

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
18490
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .5248255     .0918352      .346283    .6997989

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2267461     .0940305     .0845232    .4404655

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
15264
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .516709     .0922418     .3380127    .6927843

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2062106     .0875091     .0764559    .4059043

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
13683
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .5085867     .0927294     .3313246     .686615

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1870507     .0811818     .0682557    .3754974

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
11957
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .5004651     .0932956      .323053    .6797381

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .169271     .0751064     .0607528    .3441951

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
11919
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4923507     .0939371     .3147064    .6742479

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1528549     .0693264     .0540535    .3163846

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
11707
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4842502     .0946498     .3056246    .6698487

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1377678     .0638716     .0477361    .2897664

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 8527
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4761698     .0954292     .2974933      .66417

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1239606     .0587593     .0424371    .2656139

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 6111
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .468116     .0962701     .2880415    .6588472

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1113727      .053996     .0374171    .2440461

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 5618
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .460095     .0971668     .2782308     .653103

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0999356     .0495796     .0329696    .2226085

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 4026
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4521127     .0981135     .2694665    .6468793

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0895756     .0455013     .0290509    .2026398

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 3318
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4441752     .0991041     .2602333    .6415394

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0802164     .0417472     .0255344    .1859755

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 3099
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4362881     .1001322     .2510748    .6362123

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0717811        .0383     .0222364    .1705265

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 3503
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4284569     .1011915     .2426182    .6308168

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .064194     .0351404     .0193362     .154391

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 2243
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4206868     .1022757     .2337556      .62647

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0573819     .0322482     .0169115    .1402373

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 1979
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4129829     .1033786     .2253668    .6222244

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0512746     .0296032     .0146804    .1277358

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 2248
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |     .40535     .1044943     .2163118    .6183377

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0458063     .0271854     .0127454    .1157974

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 1742
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3977925     .1056169     .2077208    .6138436

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0409151     .0249757     .0110177    .1059274

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 1692
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3903146     .1067409     .1996421    .6093732

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .036544     .0229562     .0094671      .09656

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 1153
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3829204     .1078612     .1915731    .6049827

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0326404     .0211103     .0080905     .088564

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
 1103
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3756135     .1089729     .1837799    .6011197

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0291563     .0194223     .0069053    .0804611

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  903
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3683972     .1100714     .1761328    .5980708

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0260479     .0178783     .0060015    .0735172

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  572
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3612747     .1111528     .1688603    .5952536

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0232754     .0164653     .0051758     .067226

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  564
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3542487     .1122131     .1609429    .5919344

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0208032     .0151715     .0044146    .0613037

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  498
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3473218      .113249     .1535874     .588918

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0185988     .0139862     .0037724    .0560055

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  550
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3404962     .1142576     .1462524    .5848492

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0166334     .0128999     .0032157     .051291

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  407
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .333774     .1152362     .1394001    .5820506

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .014881     .0119037     .0027829    .0468739

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  552
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3271568     .1161824     .1329639    .5784945

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0133183     .0109897     .0023615    .0429461

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  573
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3206462     .1170943     .1267749    .5748175

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0119245     .0101507     .0020014    .0393603

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  553
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3142433     .1179703     .1206252    .5707835

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0106812     .0093801     .0017043    .0361373

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  424
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3079491     .1188089     .1149739    .5684576

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0095719     .0086722      .001439    .0330754

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  490
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3017644     .1196093      .109588    .5658816

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0085817     .0080215     .0012245    .0304007

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  438
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2956897     .1203704     .1040466    .5626706

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0076977     .0074231     .0010451     .028064

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  234
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2897254     .1210919     .0987994    .5598048

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0069082     .0068726     .0008852    .0258452

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  538
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2838716     .1217732     .0938038    .5573367

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0062027     .0063659     .0007482    .0238743

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  735
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2781284     .1224144      .089032    .5545087

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0055722     .0058994     .0006325    .0220316

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  438
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2724954     .1230155      .084412    .5524405

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0050084     .0054697     .0005336     .020183

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  452
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2669724     .1235766     .0802243    .5499687

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .004504     .0050738     .0004528    .0186347

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  475
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2615589     .1240981     .0761164    .5478358

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0040527     .0047089     .0003835    .0171217

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  478
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2562541     .1245805     .0719667    .5462949

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0036485     .0043724     .0003242    .0155523

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  259
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2510574     .1250245     .0682325     .544174

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0032864     .0040619     .0002752    .0142432

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  441
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2459679     .1254308     .0642662    .5418257

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .002962     .0037754     .0002331    .0130972

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  399
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2409845     .1258001     .0606925    .5401053

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .002671     .0035109     .0001978    .0120578

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  202
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2361062     .1261333     .0574606     .537394

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |     .00241     .0032666     .0001671     .011093

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  147
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2313318     .1264313     .0541854    .5355163

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0021757     .0030409     .0001407    .0102075

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  173
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2266601     .1266953     .0510893    .5325089

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0019653     .0028323     .0001189    .0093936

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
  116
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2220897     .1269261     .0481741    .5305195

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0017763     .0026394     .0001005    .0086326

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
   58
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2176193     .1271248     .0455292    .5290864

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0016063      .002461     .0000851     .007933

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
   18
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2132474     .1272926     .0430007    .5274731

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0014535     .0022958     .0000717    .0072898

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
   11
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2089725     .1274305      .040642     .524627

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0013159     .0021429       .00006     .006727

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
    4
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2047931     .1275396     .0384613    .5231615

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0011921     .0020012     .0000507    .0061892

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
    5
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2007076     .1276212     .0363263    .5210647

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0010805       .00187     .0000427    .0056843

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
    3
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1967145     .1276762     .0342053    .5191499

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0009799     .0017483     .0000357     .005277

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
    3
(1 real change made)

. 
. 
. order xaxis pidiff*

. 
. sort xaxis

. 
. twoway  (rarea pidifflo pidiffhi xaxis if xaxis < `xrange',  lcolor(white)) ||  (line pidiffmed xaxis if xaxis < `xrange', lpattern(so
> lid) lwidth(thick)) || (line pidifflo xaxis if xaxis < `xrange', lpattern(solid) lwidth(thin)) || (line pidiffhi xaxis if xaxis < `xra
> nge', lpattern(solid) lwidth(thin)) || (kdensity CIEl,      xaxis(2) yaxis(2)       xscale(axis(2) off )            yscale(axis(2) ran
> ge(0 `max_len'/5))),   xtitle(ln(LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUMS/CAPITA)) ytitle("Change in P(CRISIS)", axis(1)) ytitle("", axis(2))   yscale(
> range(-0.002 0.001)) title(Predicted Effect of DEMOCRACY (LOW) (Lowest-Counterfactual))  legend(order(1 "95% CI" 2 "Estimated" "Effect
> " 5 "Density" ))  yline(0,lp(solid) lwidth(medthick)) scheme(lean2)

. 
. graph export interaction_dml2bw.pdf, replace
(file /Users/Allan/Dropbox/!!Papers/liberal peace/11-12-21_Commentary_on_Mousseau/Replication Files/interaction_dml2bw.pdf written in PD
> F format)

. graph export interaction_dml2bw.png, replace
(file interaction_dml2bw.png written in PNG format)

. 
. twoway  (rarea pidifflo pidiffhi xaxis if xaxis < `xrange',  lcolor(white)) ||  (line pidiffmed xaxis if xaxis < `xrange', lpattern(so
> lid) lwidth(thick)) || (kdensity CIEl,    xaxis(2) yaxis(2)       xscale(axis(2) off )            yscale(axis(2) range(0 `max_len'/5))
> ),   xtitle(ln(LIFE INSURANCE PREMIUMS/CAPITA)) ytitle("Change in P(CRISIS)", axis(1)) ytitle("", axis(2))  yscale(range(-0.002 0.001)
> ) title(Predicted Effect of DEMOCRACY (LOW) (Lowest-Counterfactual))  legend(order(1 "95% CI" 2 "Estimated" "Effect" 3 "Density" ))  y
> line(0,lp(solid) lwidth(medthick)) 

. 
. graph export interaction_dml2col.pdf, replace
(file /Users/Allan/Dropbox/!!Papers/liberal peace/11-12-21_Commentary_on_Mousseau/Replication Files/interaction_dml2col.pdf written in P
> DF format)

. graph export interaction_dml2col.png, replace
(file interaction_dml2col.png written in PNG format)

. 
. 
. 
. 
. **
. *Significance at about CIEl=0.5
. count if CIEl<0.5
109932

. local A1= r(N)

. count if CIEl~=.
328556

. local A2= r(N)

. di `A1'/`A2'
.33459136

. di (`A2'-`A1')/`A2'
.66540864

. *33% insignificant; 67% significant. 
. 
. 
. 
. *****Figure A1
. 
. clear

. cd "$filetree"
/Users/Allan/Dropbox/!!Papers/liberal peace/11-12-21_Commentary_on_Mousseau/Replication Files

. use "MOUM2012-2.dta"

. 
. global controlvars  lncprt  majpow cntgd dist  numstate  peaceyrs _spline1 _spline2 _spline3

. 
. 
. 
. estsimp logit           crisis1                 CIEl  dml  CIElDml dmdist                         $controlvars, cl(dyadid) nolog sims(
> 10000)

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =     321811
                                                  Wald chi2(13)   =    1481.57
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudolikelihood = -1746.1962                 Pseudo R2       =     0.2574

                             (Std. Err. adjusted for 12469 clusters in dyadid)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
     crisis1 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
        CIEl |  -.5986541   .1181671    -5.07   0.000    -.8302574   -.3670509
         dml |   .0085421   .0403181     0.21   0.832    -.0704798     .087564
     CIElDml |  -.0494445   .0142264    -3.48   0.001    -.0773276   -.0215613
      dmdist |   .0493793   .0129164     3.82   0.000     .0240635     .074695
      lncprt |  -.3082944    .088412    -3.49   0.000    -.4815786   -.1350101
      majpow |    2.58094   .2745646     9.40   0.000     2.042803    3.119077
       cntgd |   2.097992    .282814     7.42   0.000     1.543687    2.652297
        dist |  -.6662585   .0906794    -7.35   0.000    -.8439868   -.4885301
    numstate |  -.0054083   .0027633    -1.96   0.050    -.0108242    7.57e-06
    peaceyrs |  -.3121377   .0496292    -6.29   0.000    -.4094091   -.2148663
    _spline1 |  -.0020484   .0005739    -3.57   0.000    -.0031732   -.0009236
    _spline2 |   .0012719   .0004425     2.87   0.004     .0004047    .0021391
    _spline3 |  -.0003287   .0001573    -2.09   0.037    -.0006371   -.0000203
       _cons |   .4839694    .852703     0.57   0.570    -1.187298    2.155236
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Simulating main parameters.  Please wait....
% of simulations completed: 7% 14% 21% 28% 35% 42% 50% 57% 64% 71% 78% 85% 92% 100% 

Number of simulations  : 10000
Names of new variables : b1 b2 b3 b4 b5 b6 b7 b8 b9 b10 b11 b12 b13 b14

. 
. summarize CIEl, d

                            CIEL
-------------------------------------------------------------
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%            0              0
 5%            0              0
10%            0              0       Obs              328556
25%     .2730841              0       Sum of Wgt.      328556

50%     .8533113                      Mean           1.090047
                        Largest       Std. Dev.      1.137458
75%     1.530647       7.891397
90%     2.377811       7.954988       Variance        1.29381
95%     3.213251        7.97104       Skewness       2.000386
99%     5.801502       8.012553       Kurtosis       8.519958

.    local mx1=round(r(p50),0.001)

.    local mx2=round(r(p90),0.001)

.    *These will be used to change CIEl from median to 90th percentile (50 to 90th percentile). 
. 
. sum dml,d

                         DemocracyL
-------------------------------------------------------------
      Percentiles      Smallest
 1%          -10            -10
 5%          -10            -10
10%           -9            -10       Obs              405126
25%           -8            -10       Sum of Wgt.      405126

50%           -7                      Mean          -4.226961
                        Largest       Std. Dev.      5.884567
75%           -2             10
90%            7             10       Variance       34.62813
95%            8             10       Skewness       1.217601
99%           10             10       Kurtosis       3.083872

. local dmlmin=r(min)

.    generate dmlaxis = `dmlmin'+_n-1 in 1/21
(512140 missing values generated)

. 
.    
.  gen plo=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen phi=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen plo1=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen phi1=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen plo2=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen phi2=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen pmid=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen pmid1=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen pmid2=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen pidifflo=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen pidiffhi=.
(512161 missing values generated)

.    gen pidiffmed=.
(512161 missing values generated)

. 
. setx lncprt median  majpow 0 cntgd 1 dist min  numstate median  peaceyrs 0 _spline1 0 _spline2 0 _spline3 0

. 
. local a = 0

. while `a' <= 21 {
  2.    setx dml `a'-10 CIEl `mx1' CIElDml ((`a'-10)*`mx1')
  3.    simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi1) 
  4. 
.    setx dml `a'-10 CIEl `mx2' CIElDml ((`a'-10)*`mx2')
  5.    simqi, prval(1) genpr(pi2) 
  6.         
.         gen pidiff=pi2-pi1
  7.         _pctile pidiff, p(2.5, 50, 97.5)
  8.         replace pidifflo=r(r1) if dmlaxis==`a'-10
  9.         replace pidiffmed=r(r2) if dmlaxis==`a'-10
 10.         replace pidiffhi=r(r3) if dmlaxis==`a'-10
 11.         
. drop pi1 pi2 pidiff
 12.    local a = `a' + 1
 13. }

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4871929     .1098267     .2804671    .7016857

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4499764     .1163924      .235033    .6810882

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4792309     .1068626      .277887    .6896871

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4245517     .1123131      .220916    .6522262

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4712508     .1043082     .2760849    .6775963

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3994073     .1080923     .2054203    .6228842

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .463268     .1022103     .2722609    .6680516

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .374696     .1038051     .1911573    .5912093

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4552982     .1006082     .2686559    .6570632

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3505615     .0995224     .1779517    .5621787

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4473571     .0995308     .2635823    .6493778

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3271345     .0953076     .1645572    .5339292

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4394602     .0989938     .2569365    .6395001

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3045296     .0912134     .1507064    .5055136

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4316227     .0989989      .250739    .6320673

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2828429     .0872799     .1381877    .4762683

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4238591     .0995332     .2438005    .6240832

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2621505     .0835337      .125357    .4505072

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4161833     .1005703     .2342646    .6193598

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2425083     .0799887     .1136369    .4240699

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4086082      .102073     .2245822    .6159182

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2239528     .0766476     .1026723    .3995275

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .4011459     .1039957     .2143549    .6147208

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .2065017      .073504     .0920311    .3759664

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3938074     .1062881     .2048225    .6131779

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1901561     .0705453     .0821894    .3533756

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3866025     .1088978     .1943246    .6136821

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1749027     .0677552     .0731106    .3320942

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3795399     .1117729     .1841375    .6140922

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1607161     .0651159     .0647853     .314226

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .372627      .114864     .1742302    .6152658

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1475609     .0626097     .0572717    .2970397

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3658703     .1181255     .1637191     .615633

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1353945     .0602206      .050284    .2815405

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3592749     .1215161     .1540291    .6173146

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1241687     .0579347     .0443019    .2673524

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3528449     .1249991     .1433431    .6202382

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1138317     .0557406     .0385189    .2527945

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3465834      .128543     .1326757    .6234241

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .1043298     .0536292     .0335425    .2386124

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3404924     .1321204     .1241902    .6284812

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .0956086     .0515937     .0293728    .2265562

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |   .3345733     .1357084     .1154181    .6322662

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi1

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
             Pr(crisis1=1) |    .087614     .0496292     .0256013    .2139463

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pi2
(502161 missing values generated)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)
(0 real changes made)

. 
. 
. order dmlaxis pidiff*

. 
. sort dmlaxis

. 
. 
. twoway  (rarea pidifflo pidiffhi dmlaxis,  lcolor(white)) ||  (line pidiffmed dmlaxis, lpattern(solid) lwidth(thick)) || (line pidiffl
> o dmlaxis, lpattern(solid) lwidth(thin)) || (line pidiffhi dmlaxis, lpattern(solid) lwidth(thin)) || (kdensity dml,       xaxis(2) yax
> is(2)       xscale(axis(2) off )            yscale(axis(2) range(0 `max_len'/1.5))),  ymtick(##10)  xtitle(DEMOCRACY (LOW)) ytitle("Ch
> ange in P(CRISIS)", axis(1)) ytitle("", axis(2))   xmtick(##5) title(Contract Intensive Economy (Low) and Conflict)  legend(order(1 "9
> 5% CI" 2 "Estimated" "Effect" 5 "Density")) yline(0,lp(solid) lwidth(medthick)) scheme(lean2)

. graph export interaction_CIEbw.pdf, replace
(file /Users/Allan/Dropbox/!!Papers/liberal peace/11-12-21_Commentary_on_Mousseau/Replication Files/interaction_CIEbw.pdf written in PDF
>  format)

. graph export interaction_CIEbw.png, replace
(file interaction_CIEbw.png written in PNG format)

. 
. twoway  (rarea pidifflo pidiffhi dmlaxis,  lcolor(white)) ||  (line pidiffmed dmlaxis, lpattern(solid) lwidth(thick)) || (kdensity dml
> , xaxis(2) yaxis(2)       xscale(axis(2) off )            yscale(axis(2) range(0 `max_len'/1.5))),  ymtick(##10)  xtitle(DEMOCRACY (LO
> W)) ytitle("Change in P(CRISIS)", axis(1)) ytitle("", axis(2))   xmtick(##5) title(Contract Intensive Economy (Low) and Conflict)  leg
> end(order(1 "95% CI" 2 "Estimated" "Effect" 3 "Density")) yline(0,lp(solid) lwidth(medthick)) 

. 
. 
. graph export interaction_CIEcol.pdf, replace
(file /Users/Allan/Dropbox/!!Papers/liberal peace/11-12-21_Commentary_on_Mousseau/Replication Files/interaction_CIEcol.pdf written in PD
> F format)

. graph export interaction_CIEcol.png, replace
(file interaction_CIEcol.png written in PNG format)

. 
.    
. count if dml<-7
129632

. local A1= r(N)

. count if dml~=.
405126

. local A2= r(N)

. di `A1'/`A2'
.31997946

. di 129632/405126
.31997946

. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. *****************************************************************************
. *******************************Adding CIEh***********************************
. *****************************************************************************
. 
. clear

. cd "$filetree"
/Users/Allan/Dropbox/!!Papers/liberal peace/11-12-21_Commentary_on_Mousseau/Replication Files

. use "MOUM2012-2.dta"

. 
. 
. ***MOUM TABLE 1, with CIEh included
. quietly {

. esttab using Table1.rtf, b(2) se(2) replace label star(`=char(160)' 0.10 * 0.05 ** 0.01 *** 0.001)  order(CIEl CIEh dml bdm dmlsq dmdi
> st $controlvars) scalars("ll Log lik.") pr2 varwidth(25) modelwidth(8)
(output written to Table1.rtf)

. 
. 
. 
. *****************************************************************************
. **********************Looking at Polity=10***********************************
. *****************************************************************************
. 
. *Data for Mousseau 2009 acquired from Michael Mousseau. 
. clear

. cd "$filetree"
/Users/Allan/Dropbox/!!Papers/liberal peace/11-12-21_Commentary_on_Mousseau/Replication Files

. use "Mousseau_IS_2009.dta"

. 
. gen bCIE=0 if CIE1~=. & CIE2~=.
(83063 missing values generated)

. replace bCIE=1 if  CIE1+CIE2==2
(10866 real changes made)

. replace bCIE=. if CIE1==. | CIE2==.
(0 real changes made)

. 
. gen dml=polity21 if polity21<= polity22 & polity21~=. & polity22~=.
(200971 missing values generated)

. replace dml= polity22 if polity21> polity22 & polity21~=. & polity22~=.
(200971 real changes made)

. replace dml=. if polity21==. | polity22==.
(0 real changes made)

.    
. count if bCIE==1 & dml~=.
10866

. local A1= r(N)

. count if bCIE~=. & dml~=.
287126

. local A2= r(N)

. di `A1'/`A2'
.03784401

. *3.8% of dyads have bCIE=1; or 10866/287126
. 
. 
. count if dml==10 & bCIE~=.
10587

. local A1= r(N)

. count if dml~=. & bCIE~=.
287126

. local A2= r(N)

. di `A1'/`A2'
.03687231

. *3.7% of dyads have polity=10; or 10587/287126
. 
. count if dml>=7 & dml~=. & bCIE~=.
35729

. local A1= r(N)

. count if dml~=. & bCIE~=.
287126

. local A2= r(N)

. di `A1'/`A2'
.12443666

. *12.4% of dyads have polity>=7; or 35729/287126
. 
. log close
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  /Users/Allan/Dropbox/!!Papers/liberal peace/11-12-21_Commentary_on_Mousseau/Replication Files/12-09-18_DR_log.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:  18 Sep 2012, 10:56:44
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
